Handicapping the OscarsRuthe Stein
Sunday, February 17, 2008
This Oscar race is way too easy to call - raising suspicion of an upset like the startling win of "Crash" over "Brokeback Mountain" or Juliette Binoche's over Lauren Bacall.
More than in most years, members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences chose well, honoring the strongest movies with little heed to how they performed at the box office.
Leading the pack with eight nominations are the equally dark, gory and hypnotic "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will be Blood." What's unusual is that both movies rated only one nomination for acting. Javier Bardem as the face and hairdo of evil in "No Country" is primed to take best supporting actor, and Daniel Day-Lewis as a conniving oilman in "Blood" is a heavy favorite to win best actor. An upset in either category could foreshadow other losses for these movies.
"Michael Clayton" and "Atonement" are right behind with seven nominations each. Full-page ads are trumpeting this recognition now, but there won't be much to brag about after the Academy Awards on Feb. 24. "Atonement's" best chances are in technical categories, such as costume and art direction. "Clayton's" three nominations in the acting categories sound impressive, except none is favored to win.
First-time nominees such as Ellen Page, Viggo Mortensen and Casey Affleck will walk the red carpet alongside Oscar veterans Tommy Lee Jones and Cate Blanchett, an acceptance speech crushed into a pocket or purse just in case.
BEST PICTURE
"Atonement," "Juno," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men," "There Will Be Blood."
"Atonement" director Joe Wright failed to receive a directing nomination, an indication of the questionable regard academy members have for his movie. "There Will Be Blood" is more admired than loved by voters, and "Michael Clayton" got as far as it did on the strength of star George Clooney's popularity.
Will win: "No Country for Old Men" looks to be a shoo-in. Told in the style of a classic Western, this compelling saga of a drug deal gone awry in the desolate Texas countryside shines in an unusually rich year for cinema.
Unless there's an upset: "Juno" is as beloved as "Little Miss Sunshine" was. After picking "The Departed" last year, voters might be in a mood to bestow top honors to a feel-good movie devoid of violence. Although box-office revenues weren't a major consideration, it's worth noting that "Country" and "Juno" are the top-grossing films in their category and that the latter, with its more than $100 million take, earned almost twice as much as "Country."
BEST ACTORGeorge Clooney, "Michael Clayton"; Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"; Johnny Depp, "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"; Tommy Lee Jones, "In the Valley of Elah"; Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises."
Some performances cry "Oscar" from the opening scenes. Heath Ledger's in "Brokeback Mountain" is one. Time will prove that the academy made the wrong call in giving the award to Philip Seymour Hoffman for "Capote" instead. Meanwhile, Day-Lewis can be grateful that Hoffman is competing for best supporting actor for his role in "Charlie Wilson's War."
Few people saw Jones' heartbreaking performance as a father trying to stay tough as he investigates his son's murder or Mortensen's naked portrayal (both literally and figuratively) as a Russian mafioso. Hopefully, their nominations will boost DVD sales.
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis' manipulative and greedy oil tycoon is a tour de force performance. He's in every scene and never does anything out of character. It will become a classic performance.
Unless there's an upset: Hollywood loves Clooney, who does his best acting as a disreputable lawyer in "Clayton." Although his best is still no match for Day-Lewis, Clooney could squeeze in.
BEST ACTRESSCate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"; Julie Christie, "Away From Her"; Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"; Laura Linney, "The Savages"; Ellen Page, "Juno."

The scarcity of challenging roles for actresses this year is underscored by this thin list. Blanchett is always easy to watch, but her virgin queen seems like a wax figure. Both Elizabeths need to be retired from the screen for a spell. Page is adorable, but at age 20 lacks the gravitas of a best actress. Linney's performance isn't the emotional grabber of her previous work.
Will win: Julie Christie is known for her long disappearing acts from the movie business. Reappearing as a wife battling Alzheimer's disease is a Christie we haven't seen before. She's visibly older, fragile but with glimpses of toughness. Old Hollywood will want to reward her in the hope that she'll stick around. She's already picked up a Golden Globe and a Screen Actors Guild award.
Unless there's an upset: "La Vie en Rose" got mixed reviews, but there were only raves for Cotillard's appearance as Edith Piaf. She seemed to channel the French chanteuse. It's a revelation to see Cotillard at award shows and realize how much she changed her appearance. She's proved to be a tireless campaigner, traveling to the country's smaller movie markets.
SUPPORTING ACTORCasey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"; Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"; Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"; Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"; Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton."
At 83, Holbrook gets the sentimental vote for longevity. Wilkinson was terrific as a crazed lawyer, but his star has fallen in the months since "Clayton" came out. The groundswell of support for Affleck has quieted down because the movie is so impenetrable.
Will win: Javier Bardem took many risks to pull off the role of a psychotic murderer. That bowl haircut with bangs was one: It could have been laughable instead of terrifying. His chilling performance contributed to the spooky mood of "No Country."
Unless there's an upset: In a less competitive year, Hoffman would get a best actor nomination for "Before the Devil Knows Your Dead" or "The Savages." So much great work in one year could lead voters to reward his glass-smashing Greek CIA agent.
SUPPORTING ACTRESSCate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"; Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"; Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement"; Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"; Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton."
This is the closest category to call. Dee has some edge because she's 83 and has never been nominated before. She was feisty as the mother of Denzel Washington's Harlem drug lord, but was hardly in the picture. As a noisy younger sister, Ronan, who is only 13, dominated her scenes, but her age will probably work against her. Swinton wears designer clothes as if to the manner born, but isn't quite convincing as a corporate lawyer.
Will win: Cate Blanchett's nomination as best actress may split the academy's vote. More likely, though, they will favor her spot-on impersonation of Bob Dylan. She already won for impersonating Katharine Hepburn. Who's next? Orson Welles?
Unless there's an upset: Anyone who saw "Gone Baby Gone" won't have to ask "Amy who?" Ryan brings pathos and a frightening energy to her drugged-out Boston mother from the wrong side of the tracks whose daughter goes missing.
DIRECTORJulian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"; Jason Reitman, "Juno"; Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"; Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"; Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood."
Gilroy, Reitman and Anderson are gifted filmmakers with Oscars in their future. But not this time.
Will win: Joel and Ethan Coen will take home matching statuettes - the first time since Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins won tandem directing Oscars for "West Side Story" in 1962. It's the brothers' best work since "Fargo." They repeated their formula for finding humor in disturbing moments.
Unless there's an upset: Schnabel's surprise win at the Golden Globes has some people thinking he might repeat Roman Polanski's come-from-nowhere coup at the 2003 Academy Awards. But "Butterfly" has only two other nominations - for cinematography and screenplay - and it's unlikely that a directing Oscar would go to a film whose actors aren't recognized.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM"Beaufort," Israel; "The Counterfeiters," Austria; "Katyn," Poland; "Mongol," Kazakhstan; "12," Russia.
Last year's foreign entries all were Oscar-worthy. This time, however, some terrific potential nominees were eliminated because of the academy's strict rules. "Lust, Caution" was disqualified for having too much American participation and not enough Taiwanese. "The Band's Visit" got zinged because more than half the Israeli film is in English. The Romanian film "4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days" also didn't make the cut. This leaves a slate of movies that have yet to open in the Bay Area.
Will win: "Katyn" because it's directed by the great Polish filmmaker Andrezej Wajda and because it's about a subject very close to him: the 1940 Katyn massacre in which his father, a Polish cavalry officer, was murdered by the Russians. Wajda received an honorary Oscar in 2000.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAYChristopher Hampton, "Atonement"; Sarah Polley, "Away From Her"; Ronald Harwood, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"; Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"; Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood."
You could play spin the Oscar, and whichever entry it pointed to would be worthy.
Will win: Joel and Ethan Coen usually bring original material to the screen. But they had a real feel for Cormac McCarthy's forsaken vision. Just listen to the brilliant way they adapted Tommy Lee Jones' descriptions of dreams about his father, which end a film you don't want to see end.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYDiablo Cody, "Juno"; Nancy Oliver, "Lars and the Real Girl"; Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"; Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava and Jim Capobianco, "Ratatouille"; Tamara Jenkins, "The Savages."
Since Matt Damon and Ben Affleck won for "Good Will Hunting," this category has drawn more attention than humble scribes are used to. It's a pat on the back for a film that academy members want to honor in some way, like "Little Miss Sunshine."
Will win: Diablo Cody. This hot screenwriter, a onetime stripper, took what might have been a trite story and made it unforgettable.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE"No End in Sight," "Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience," "Sicko," "Taxi to the Dark Side," "War/Dance."
Don't look for Michael Moore in the winner's circle - but not because academy members fear more of the anti-war rhetoric he spewed in 2003. He's going to lose because he made a film about America's health care mess while almost all the competition is about the war in Iraq, a hotter subject at the moment.
Will win: "No End in Sight," directed by Charles Ferguson, examines the reasons the war in Iraq has gone so badly. To start with, the United States sent insufficient troops. Talking heads describe Iraq's descent into guerrilla warfare and anarchy.
ANIMATED FEATURE"Persepolis," "Ratatouille," "Surf's Up."
"Persepolis," a spirited adaptation of a graphic novel about a Muslim girl coming of age, would have had a far better shot in the foreign language category than against the unbeatable "Ratatouille."
Will win: The rats have it.